Safe withdrawal rate: 3% vs 4% vs 5%

Withdrawal rate is a key lever in retirement planning. Small differences can mean big changes in the target portfolio.

Compare rates in Retirement

What a withdrawal rate does

It converts a yearly income target into a portfolio target. Lower rates are more conservative (bigger target). Higher rates are less conservative (smaller target).

Example targets (income ÷ rate)

For $60,000/year:

How to use this in real life

Run your plan at 3%, 4%, and 5%. If your plan only works at 5%, you may want to adjust spending, contributions, or retirement age.

Why asset mix matters as much as the rate

Your withdrawal rate isn't the only lever — what you're withdrawing from matters too. A portfolio that's still heavily weighted to shares can be hit hard by a downturn early in retirement, forcing you to sell at a loss to fund withdrawals. This is a big reason retirees hold more bonds than younger investors. See ETF vs Bonds for how shifting the mix affects both growth and stability.

FAQ

Is 3% always best?

It’s more conservative, but it requires a larger portfolio. The “best” rate depends on your flexibility and time horizon.

Why do people use 4%?

It’s a widely discussed rule of thumb based on historical data and assumptions, but it’s not guaranteed.

Can I use 5%?

Some people do, especially with flexible spending. It generally increases the risk of running out during bad markets.

Does the calculator include inflation?

It’s simplified. Use it for scenario testing rather than exact forecasts.

What’s the most important lever?

Spending. Lower spending reduces the required portfolio dramatically.

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